Vic Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for November 2004 to January 2005, issued 19th October 2004

Above average seasonal temperatures favoured in Victorian

There is a moderate shift in the odds towards above average maximum and minimum temperatures across Victoria for the late spring to mid-summer quarter (Nov-Jan), the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities is mainly due to recent above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

The chances of above average maximum temperatures are between 60 and 65% over Victoria for the November to January period (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six November to January periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across the State, with about four out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During November to January, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across most of northern and western Victoria, but only weakly consistent elsewhere (see background information).

Overnight temperatures also have an increased chance of being above normal across the State for the late spring to mid-summer period, with the chances of above average minimum temperatures being between 60 and 70%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during November to January to be moderately consistent in some patches over western and northern Victoria.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Victorian Regional Office: (03) 9669 4949.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th NOVEMBER 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for July to September 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for July to September 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information