National Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Summer 2004/2005, issued 19th November 2004

Hot summer favoured in much of eastern Australia

There is a moderate shift in the odds towards above average summer (Dec-Feb) maximum temperatures across much of eastern Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

The chances of above average maximum temperatures are between 60 and 70% over Queensland, northern NSW and parts of the east and north of the NT (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven summers out of ten are expected to be warmer than average in these parts of eastern Australia, with about three or four out of ten being cooler.

Across Tasmania, WA, SA, southern NSW, and the west and south of the NT, the chances of a warmer than average summer are generally between 50 and 60%. The current pattern of outlook probabilities is mainly due to recent above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During summer, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across large parts of the country (see background information).

Mean summer minimum temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal across Queensland, the NT, most of WA, northern NSW and the far north of SA. The chances of this occurring are between 60 and 75% in these areas, which equates to being expected in about seven years out of ten. Across remaining parts of the country, the chances of above average summer minimum temperatures are mostly between 45 and 60%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during summer to be moderately consistent over most of the country, particularly where the largest shifts in the odds are located.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

The following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre can be contacted about this outlook: Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527, Felicity Gamble on (03) 9669 4256, David Jones on (03) 9669 4085
Regional versions of this media release are available: | Qld | NSW | Vic | Tas | SA | WA | NT |

Regional commentary is available from the Climate and Consultancy Sections in the Bureau's Regional Offices:
Queensland -(07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666
New South Wales -(02) 9296 1522
Victoria -(03) 9669 4949
Tasmania -(03) 6221 2043
South Australia -(08) 8366 2664
Western Australia -(08) 9263 2222
The Northern Territory -(08) 8920 3813



Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for August to October 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for August to October 2004 - base period 1961-1990


Background Information