NSW Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Summer 2004/2005, issued 19th November 2004

Hot summer favoured in northern NSW

There is a moderate shift in the odds towards above average summer (Dec-Feb) maximum temperatures across northern NSW, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

Averaged over summer, the chances of above normal maximum temperatures are between 60 and 65% over northern NSW (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven summers out of ten are expected to be warmer than average in these parts of the State, with about three or four out of ten being cooler. Across the remainder of NSW, the chances are mainly between 55 and 60%.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During summer, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across large parts of the country (see background information).

Mean summer minimum temperatures also have an increased chance of being above normal across northern NSW, with probabilities in the 60 to 70% range. This equates to being expected in about six or seven years out of ten. The chances decrease quite strongly moving southward across the State, reaching about 45% along the Murray.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during summer to be moderately consistent over the northern half of NSW, but only weakly or very weakly consistent in the southern half.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Sydney Office: (02) 9296 1522.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th DECEMBER 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for August to October 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for August to October 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information