NT Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Summer 2004/2005, issued 19th November 2004

Increased warmth more likely in north and east NT

There is a moderate shift in the odds towards above average three-month maximum temperatures across parts of the north and east of the Northern Territory, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

During the middle of the wet season (Dec-Feb), the chances of above average maximum temperatures are between 60 and 65% over the northeast third of the NT (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six December to February periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average in these parts of the Territory, with about four out of ten being cooler.

Across the west and south of the NT, the chances of a warmer than average conditions over the next three months are generally between 50 and 60%. The current pattern of outlook probabilities is mainly due to recent above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During summer, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across much of the southern half of the NT, but generally weakly consistent in the north (see background information). This means the outlook probabilities should be interpreted with caution in the northern NT.

Mean three-month minimum temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal across all of the NT, with the chances of this occurring being between 60 and 75%. This equates to being expected in about seven years out of ten.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during December to February to be moderate to highly consistent over most of the NT.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th DECEMBER 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for August to October 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for August to October 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information