Qld Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Summer 2004/2005, issued 19th November 2004

Hot summer favoured for Queensland

There is a moderate shift in the odds towards above average summer (Dec-Feb) maximum temperatures across most of Queensland, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

The chances of above average summer maximum temperatures are between 60 and 70% over nearly all of Queensland, apart from a few small patches in the far north and west of the State (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven summers out of ten are expected to be warmer than average over Queensland, with about three or four out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During summer, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent in Queensland (see background information).

Mean summer minimum temperatures have an even stronger chance of being above normal across Queensland, with the chances of this occurring being between 60 and 75%. This equates to being expected in about seven years out of ten.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during summer to be moderately consistent over most of Queensland.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Brisbane Office: (07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th DECEMBER 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for August to October 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for August to October 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information