SA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Summer 2004/2005, issued 19th November 2004

Neutral outlook for SA summer temperatures

There are no large shifts in the odds towards either above or below average summer (Dec-Feb) maximum temperatures across South Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

Averaged over summer, the chances of above normal maximum temperatures are between 50 and 60% over SA, except for the far northeast corner of the State near the Queensland border where the chances marginally exceed 60% (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five or six summers out of ten are expected to be warmer than average over the State, with about four or five out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During summer, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across much of the south and the far northeast of the State, but only weakly or very weakly in central and northwestern districts (see background information).

Mean summer minimum temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal in the far north of SA, but across remaining parts of the State, the chances of above average summer minimum temperatures are mostly between 40 and 55%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during summer to be moderately consistent in the north of South Australia, but weakly or very weakly consistent across the bulk of the State.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Adelaide Office: (08) 8366 2664.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th DECEMBER 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for August to October 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for August to October 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information