Vic Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Summer 2004/2005, issued 19th November 2004

Neutral outlook for Victorian summer temperatures

There are no large shifts in the odds towards either above or below average summer (Dec-Feb) maximum temperatures across Victoria, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

Averaged over summer, the chances of above normal maximum temperatures are between 50 and 55% over Victoria (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five summers out of ten are expected to be warmer than average over the State, with about five out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During summer, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent in parts of eastern and western Victoria (see background information).

The chances of above median summer minimum temperatures are between 40 and 45% in Victoria, which equates to being expected in about five years out of ten.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during summer to be weakly consistent over Victoria.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Victorian Regional Office: (03) 9669 4949.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th DECEMBER 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for August to October 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for August to October 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information