NSW Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for January to March 2005, issued 16th December 2004

Higher temperatures for parts of northern NSW

There is a moderate shift in the odds towards above average maximum temperatures for the March quarter (Jan-Mar) in parts of northern NSW, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly the west.

For the January to March period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 60 and 65% northeast of a line from Hungerford to Newcastle (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, six seasons out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average across these parts of the State, with about four out of ten being cooler.

Across the remainder of NSW, the chances of a warmer than average January to March decrease to the southwest to be just under 45% along the Victorian border.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the March quarter, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over most of NSW (see background information).

As far as mean seasonal minimum temperatures are concerned, the outlook is neutral. The chances of above average overnight March quarter temperatures mostly range between 45 and 55% across NSW.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during the March quarter to be moderately consistent in the far northern inland of NSW. Elsewhere in the State the influence shows weak to very weak consistency.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Sydney Office: (02) 9296 1522.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 18th JANUARY 2005

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for September to November 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for September to November 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information