NT Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for January to March 2005, issued 16th December 2004

Higher temperatures likely in north and east of NT

There is a moderate to strong shift in the odds towards above average maximum temperatures for the mid to late wet season in the northeast half of the NT, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly the west.

For the January to March period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are mostly between 60 and 70% in the northeast half of the Northern Territory. The chances peak in the 75 to 80% range in eastern Arnhem Land (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven January to March periods out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average across these parts of the NT, with about three or four out of ten being cooler.

Elsewhere in the NT, the chances of a warmer than average three months decrease southwestward to be near 45% at the border with WA and SA.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the March quarter, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over the northeastern two-thirds of the NT. However, the influence is weak or very weak in remaining parts (see background information).

Mean seasonal minimum temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal over most of the Territory, with probabilities between 60 and 70%. This outlook pattern is mostly due to above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during the March quarter to be moderate to highly consistent over most of the NT.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 18th JANUARY 2005

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for September to November 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for September to November 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information