Qld Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for January to March 2005, issued 16th December 2004

Higher temperatures likely in Queensland

There is a moderate to strong shift in the odds towards above average maximum temperatures for the March quarter (Jan-Mar) over most of Queensland, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly the west.

For the January to March period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are over 60% across Queensland, apart from some of the border regions of the Channel Country. The probabilities peak in the 75 to 80% range in parts of the Gulf Country and southern Cape York Peninsula (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven seasons out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average across most of the State, with about three or four out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the March quarter, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over most of the State, with a strong influence in the Bundaberg to Rockhampton region (see background information).

Mean seasonal minimum temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal over the northern half of Queensland, with probabilities above 60%. In the remaining parts of the State, the chances are between 55 and 60%. This outlook pattern is mostly due to above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during the March quarter to be moderately consistent over most of Queensland.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Brisbane Office: (07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 18th JANUARY 2005

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for September to November 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for September to November 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information