SA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for January to March 2005, issued 16th December 2004

Cooler season more likely in southeast SA

There is a moderate shift in the odds towards below average maximum temperatures for the March quarter (Jan-Mar) in the southeast of South Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly the west.

For the January to March period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 35 and 40% in southeast SA (see map). This means that BELOW average temperatures have a 60 to 65% chance of occurring. So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six seasons out of every ten are expected to be cooler than average in this part of the State, with about four out of ten being warmer.

Elsewhere in SA, the chances of a warmer than average January to March period increase northwards and eastwards to be near 60% in the far northeast corner.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the March quarter, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent in the southern half of SA, but only weakly or very weakly consistent in the north (see background information).

The chances of mean seasonal minimum temperatures being above normal are mainly between 45 and 55% in SA, increasing to near 60% on the NT border. So there are no strong shifts in the odds towards either warmer or cooler nights in the first part of 2005.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during the March quarter to be generally very weak across South Australia.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Adelaide Office: (08) 8366 2664.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 18th JANUARY 2005

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for September to November 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for September to November 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information