Tas Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for January to March 2005, issued 16th December 2004

Neutral outlook for Tasmanian seasonal temperatures

There are no strong shifts in the odds towards either above or below average maximum temperatures for the March quarter (Jan-Mar) in Tasmania, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.

For the January to March period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 40 and 45% over Tasmania (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about four or five seasons out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average across the State, with about five or six out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the March quarter, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over Tasmania (see background information).

The chances of mean seasonal minimum temperatures being above normal are between 45 and 50% across Tasmania. So there are no strong shifts in the odds towards either warmer or cooler nights in the first part of 2005.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during the March quarter to be only weakly or very weakly consistent over Tasmania.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Hobart Office: (03) 6221 2043.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 18th JANUARY 2005

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for September to November 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for September to November 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information