Vic Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for January to March 2005, issued 16th December 2004

Cooler season more likely in western Victoria

There is a moderate shift in the odds towards below average maximum temperatures for the March quarter (Jan-Mar) in much of western Victoria, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly the west.

For the January to March period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 35 and 40% in the Western District, Wimmera and parts of the southern Mallee (see map). This means that BELOW average temperatures have a 60 to 65% chance of occurring. Elsewhere in the State the chances are between 40 and 45%. So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six seasons out of every ten are expected to be cooler than average across western Victoria, with about four out of ten being warmer.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the March quarter, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over most of Victoria (see background information).

The chances of mean seasonal minimum temperatures being above normal are between 40 and 50% in Victoria. So there are no strong shifts in the odds towards either warmer or cooler nights in the first part of 2005.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during the March quarter to be only weakly or very weakly consistent over Victoria.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Victorian Regional Office: (03) 9669 4949.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 18th JANUARY 2005

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for September to November 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for September to November 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information