WA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for January to March 2005, issued 16th December 2004

Generally neutral outlook for WA seasonal temperatures

There are no strong shifts in the odds towards either above or below average maximum temperatures for the March quarter (Jan-Mar) across most of Western Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. The one exception is in the north Kimberley where a warmer than average season is the more likely outcome. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly the west.

For the January to March period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are mostly between 45 and 60% in WA, except in the far north of the State where they reach 60 to 65% (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six seasons out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average in the north Kimberley, with about four out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the March quarter, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent in a broad zone about a line joining Port Hedland and Esperance, and about the far northeast coast. The influence is generally very weak along the west coast and throughout the northeast interior (see background information).

Mean seasonal minimum temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal in northeast WA, with probabilities between 60 and 70%. Elsewhere in the State, the chances of above average overnight March quarter temperatures range between 50 and 60%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during the March quarter in WA to be moderately consistent in the north, along parts of the west coast and some of the southeast. Elsewhere the influence shows weak to very weak consistency.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (WST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Perth Office: (08) 9263 2222.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 18th JANUARY 2005

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for September to November 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for September to November 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information