NSW Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for February to April 2005, issued 18th January 2005

Higher temperatures for parts of northern NSW

There is a moderate shift in the odds towards above average maximum temperatures for the late summer to mid-autumn quarter (Feb-Apr) in parts of northern NSW, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

For the February to April period in NSW, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 60 and 65% northeast of a line from Hungerford to Newcastle (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six seasons out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average across these parts of the State, with about three or four out of ten being cooler.

Across the rest of NSW, the chances of exceeding the median maximum temperature for the three months from February to April, are mainly between 45 and 60%.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the February to April period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent along the northern and central NSW coasts, but elsewhere the influence is only weakly or very weakly consistent (see background information).

Mean seasonal minimum temperatures have an increased chance of being cooler than usual in far southwestern NSW. The chances of above normal overnight temperatures averaged over February to April, are between 35 and 40% in this part of the State, which equates to about six years in ten with below average temperatures. This outlook pattern is mostly due to above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the February to April period to be weakly consistent over most of NSW.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Sydney Office: (02) 9296 1522.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 18th FEBRUARY 2005

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for October to December 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for October to December 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information