NT Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for February to April 2005, issued 18th January 2005

Higher temperatures likely in north and east of NT

There is a moderate to strong shift in the odds towards above average maximum temperatures for the late wet season (Feb-Apr) in the northeast half of the NT, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

For the February to April period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are mostly between 60 and 70% in the northeast half of the Northern Territory. The chances peak in the 75 to 80% range in eastern Arnhem Land (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven February to April periods out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average across these parts of the NT, with about three or four out of ten being cooler.

Elsewhere in the NT, the chances of a warmer than average three months, decrease southwestward to a little under 45% in the NT/SA/WA border region.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the February to April period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over the Top End, but mainly weakly consistent elsewhere in the NT (see background information).

Mean seasonal minimum temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal over all but the far southeast of the NT. The chances of above normal overnight temperatures averaged over the next three months, range between 60 and 75% over these areas, and this outlook pattern is mostly due to above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the February to April period to be moderately consistent over all but the southern fringe of the NT.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 18th FEBRUARY 2005

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for October to December 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for October to December 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information