Qld Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for February to April 2005, issued 18th January 2005

Higher temperatures likely in Queensland

There is a moderate to strong shift in the odds towards above average maximum temperatures for the late summer to mid-autumn quarter (Feb-Apr) across most of Queensland, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. For most other parts of the country there are no strong shifts in the odds towards either a warmer or cooler than average season. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

For the February to April period in Queensland, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 60 and 70% except in the far west and southwest where they're about 55% (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven seasons out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average across most of the State, with about three or four out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the February to April period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over the vast majority Queensland (see background information).

Mean seasonal minimum temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal across most of the northern half of Queensland. The chances of above normal overnight temperatures averaged over the next three months, range between 60 and 75% in this part of the State. In southern areas, the chances are generally between 50 and 60%. This outlook pattern is mostly due to above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the February to April period to be moderately consistent over most of Queensland.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Brisbane Office: (07) 3239 8660.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 18th FEBRUARY 2005

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for October to December 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for October to December 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information