Tas Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for February to April 2005, issued 18th January 2005

Neutral outlook for Tasmanian seasonal temperatures

There are no strong shifts in the odds toward either above or below average maximum temperatures for the late summer to mid-autumn quarter (Feb-Apr) across Tasmania, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. However, this does not preclude the occurrence of occasional days with high temperatures and extreme fire danger.

For the February to April period in Tasmania, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are mainly between 40 and 45% (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about four or five seasons out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average across the State, with about five or six out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the February to April period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be generally weakly consistent over Tasmania, apart from the northeast where it rises to moderate (see background information).

The outlook is also neutral for mean seasonal minimum temperatures. The chances of above normal overnight temperatures averaged over February to April, is generally close to 45% in Tasmania.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the February to April period to be weakly consistent over Tasmania.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Hobart Office: (03) 6221 2043.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 18th FEBRUARY 2005

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for October to December 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for October to December 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information