Vic Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for February to April 2005, issued 18th January 2005

Neutral outlook for Victorian seasonal temperatures

There are no strong shifts in the odds toward either above or below average maximum temperatures for the late summer to mid-autumn quarter (Feb-Apr) across Victoria, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. However, this does not preclude the occurrence of occasional days with high temperatures and extreme fire danger.

For the February to April period in Victoria, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are mainly between 40 and 45% (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about four or five seasons out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average across the State, with about five or six out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the February to April period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across patches in western and southern Victoria, but only weakly consistent across most of the State (see background information).

Mean seasonal minimum temperatures have an increased chance of being cooler than usual over most of western and central Victoria. The chances of above normal overnight temperatures averaged over February to April, are between 35 and 40% in these parts of the State, which equates to about six years in ten with below average temperatures. This outlook pattern is mostly due to above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the February to April period to be moderately consistent over some parts of northern Victoria, but only weakly consistent across most of the State. The outlook should therefore be viewed with caution.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Victorian Regional Office: (03) 9669 4949.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 18th FEBRUARY 2005

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for October to December 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for October to December 2004 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information