For the late autumn to mid-winter period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime
temperatures exceed 60% in the northern halves of
Queensland and the NT, as well as across much of WA with the exception of the southeast
and eastern interior (see map). The probabilities exceed 75% in the far north and a small area
in the central-west of WA.
So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six to eight May-July periods out
of every ten are expected to be warmer than average across northern and western Australia,
with about two or four out of ten being cooler.
In southeast Queensland by way of contrast, the chances of exceeding the
median maximum temperature for the coming three months are slightly below 40%, meaning
that a cooler than average season would be expected in about six years out of every
ten. However, across the rest of Australia, the chances of above average seasonal
maximum temperatures are between 40 and 60%.
Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the
influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal
temperatures. During the May to July period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures
to be moderately consistent over large parts of the country, including those areas
with large probability shifts (see background information), but only weakly consistent in the
southern half of Queensland.
There is a moderate to strong shift in the odds towards above average
minimum temperatures for the May to July quarter over Queensland, the NT,
most of WA, as well as the northern parts of both SA and NSW.
The probabilities are mostly in the 60 to 70%
range, reaching up to 75% in parts of northern Queensland. In Victoria, Tasmania,
and most of NSW and SA, the chances of above normal overnight temperatures averaged over the next three
months, are between 50 and 60%.
History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the
May to July period to be strongly consistent over most of Queensland and southern
Western Australia, and moderately consistent over the rest of WA, the NT
and parts of Tasmania and northern NSW. Elsewhere there is only weak consistency.