For the late winter to mid-spring period (Aug-Oct), the chance that seasonal maximum
temperatures will be higher than the median is above 60% in all areas with the exception of
the far north and Tasmania (see map). The chances are above 70% over much of western WA,
southern Queensland and northern NSW.
So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six to eight August to October quarters out
of every ten are expected to be warmer than average across much of the continent,
with about two to four out of ten being cooler.
The chances of a warmer than average season are in the 50 to 60% range in Tasmania and the
The outlook pattern for maximum temperatures is due to roughly equal contributions
from higher than average temperatures in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the
influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal
temperatures. During August to October, history shows this influence on
maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across most of
the country, with the exception of the southeast and far north
where it is only weakly consistent (see background information).
The chance that seasonal minimum temperatures will be higher than the median, is above 60% in all areas,
with the exception of the southeast and parts of the far north. The probabilities are between
70 and 75% in southern inland Queensland, and between 70 and 85% over much of the southern
half of WA. Across Victoria, Tasmania, parts of southern SA, the far north of the NT
and northern Queensland, the chances of above normal overnight temperatures
averaged over August to October are between 50 and 60%.
History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during August
to October to be moderately consistent over the southern half of WA, much
of Queensland, NSW and SA. Elsewhere the influence is generally only weakly consistent.