The pattern of three-month temperature odds across Australia is partly a function of raised
temperatures in the Pacific, but mostly a result of rapidly increasing Indian
For the August to October period in eastern and southern areas of the NT, the
chances are between 60 and 70% for the average three-month maximum temperature to
exceed the long-term median (see map). In the northwest of the Territory, the chances
are mainly between 55 and 60%.
So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven August to October periods
out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average over much of the NT,
with about three or four out of ten being cooler.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian
Oceans affect Australian temperatures. During August to October, history shows this
effect on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across the
southern half of the NT, but only weakly consistent in the north (see background information).
The chances of three-month minimum temperatures being higher than the median are
between 60 and 70% over the southern two-thirds of the NT, indicating a
moderate shift in the odds towards warmer than normal conditions.
However, in the north the chances of above-normal overnight temperatures
(averaged over the coming three months) are between 50 and 60%.
History shows the oceans' effect on minimum temperatures in August
to October to be moderately consistent in only the far
east of the NT and Arnhem Land, so the above outlook should be used
with caution. Across the remainder of the NT, the effect is only weakly consistent.