The pattern of seasonal temperature odds across Australia is partly a function of raised
temperatures in the Pacific, but mostly a result of rapidly increasing Indian
For the August to October period in Queensland, the chances are above
60% for the average seasonal maximum temperature to exceed the
long-term median (see map), apart from in the far north. Across the
southern half of the State the chances exceed 70%, reaching over 80%
in the southeast inland.
So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six to eight August to October periods
out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average over most of
Queensland, with about two to four out of ten being cooler.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian
Oceans affect Australian temperatures. During August to October, history shows this
effect on maximum temperatures to be moderately to highly consistent across
the southern two-thirds of Queensland, but only weakly consistent
in the far north (see background information).
The chances of seasonal minimum temperatures being higher than the median are
between 60 and 75% across most of southern and western Queensland, indicating a
moderate to strong shift in the odds towards warmer than normal conditions.
However, in the far north and along parts of the coast, the chances of above-normal
overnight temperatures (averaged over the coming three months) are between 40 and 60%.
History shows the oceans' effect on minimum temperatures in August
to October to be moderately consistent over most of Queensland.