The pattern of seasonal temperature odds across Queensland is due to higher
than average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans, with the effect
from the Pacific being dominant.
Averaged over the coming three months, the chances are between 60 and
80% for higher than normal maximum temperatures across nearly all of Queensland,
with a few patches in the far west the only exceptions.
The chances peak above 80% in the area surrounding the east
coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria (see map).
So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six to eight February to
April periods out of every ten are expected to be hotter than average over the State,
with about two to four out of ten being cooler.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian
Oceans affect Australian temperatures. During the February to April period, history
shows this effect on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent
over the vast majority Queensland (see background information).
The chances of seasonal minimum temperatures being higher than the median are
between 60 and 80% over most of the northern half of the State, indicating
a moderate to strong shift in the odds towards warmer than normal conditions.
In contrast, warmer than average nights (averaged over the season) have only
a 40 to 45% chance of occurring in the southern inland areas of Queensland.
History shows the oceans' effect on minimum temperatures during the February to April period
to be moderately consistent over most of Queensland.