The pattern of seasonal temperature odds across WA is due to higher
than average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans, with the effect
from the Pacific being dominant.
Averaged over the coming three months, the chances are between 60 and 70% for
higher than average maximum temperatures in the northern Kimberley.
So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven February to
April periods out of every ten are expected to be hotter than average in this
part of the State, with about three or four out of ten being cooler.
Contrasting this, there are 60 to 65% chances (i.e. 35 to 40% chances of higher
than average) for a cooler than normal February to April period over the
eastern interior of WA. However, across most of the State, there are no strong
shifts towards either warmer or cooler than normal conditions.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian
Oceans affect Australian temperatures. During the February to April period, history
shows this effect on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent
over parts of central and northern WA, but over most of the State the influence is
only weakly or very weakly consistent (see background information).
The chances of seasonal minimum temperatures being higher than the median are
between 60 and 75% over the northeast one-third of WA, indicating
a moderate to strong shift in the odds towards warmer than normal conditions.
History shows the oceans' effect on minimum temperatures during the February to April period
to be moderately to highly consistent in northeast WA, and
generally moderately consistent over the rest of the State, particularly the