The pattern of seasonal rainfall odds across northern Australia is a result of
continuing higher than average temperatures over parts of the south tropical
Pacific Ocean, and also in parts of the tropical Indian Ocean.
The signal from the Indian Ocean dominates the outlook.
Averaged over spring, the chances are between 60 and 80% for above-normal
maximum temperatures over the northern half to two-thirds of both the NT and
Queensland (see map).
So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six to eight September to
November periods out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average over
these parts of northern Australia, with about two to four out of ten being cooler.
Further south in the NT and Queensland, the chances are between 50 and 60%.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian
Oceans affect Australian temperatures. During spring, history shows this effect on
maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across the bulk of Queensland
and the NT (see background information).
Average spring minimum temperatures are favoured to be warmer than normal across
all of northern Australia (see map). The chances of increased overnight warmth (averaged
over the coming three months) are mainly between 60 and 75%, with values
approaching 80% in some areas of the western NT.
History shows the oceans' effect on minimum temperatures during spring to be moderately
to highly consistent over much of northern Australia, except in southern Queensland
where the effect is generally only weakly consistent.