The pattern of seasonal temperature odds across southeastern Australia is mainly a result of
continuing higher than average temperatures over parts of the tropical and sub-tropical
Averaged over the December quarter, the chances are between 60 and 80% for above-normal
maximum temperatures over NSW, Tasmania, most of SA and parts of northern and eastern
Victoria (see map). Across western and central Victoria, together with southeastern SA,
the chances exceed 80%.
So for every ten years with ocean patterns like the current, about six to eight October to
December periods are expected to be warmer than average over southeastern Australia,
with about two to four being cooler.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian
Oceans affect Australian temperatures. During the December quarter, history shows this effect on
maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across large parts of southeast
Australia (see background information).
Minimum temperatures for the December quarter are favoured to be warmer than normal across
the north of both SA and NSW, where the chances of increased overnight warmth (averaged
over the coming three months) are mainly between 60 and 65% (see map). Across the rest
of the southeast, the probabilities are between 50 and 60%.
History shows the oceans' effect on minimum temperatures during October to December
to be moderately to highly consistent over most of western and northern NSW, northern
SA and in patches of both Victoria and Tasmania. In southeast SA, southeast NSW,
most of Victoria and central Tasmania, the effect is generally weakly consistent.