The pattern of seasonal maximum temperature odds across northern Australia is a result of
the combined effects from above average temperatures in the southeast
Indian Ocean, and the cooler than average temperatures in the equatorial Pacific
Averaged over April to June, the chances are between 30 and 40% for above-normal
maximum temperatures over the southern half of Queensland and a small region
in the southern NT (see map). In eastern Queensland, these odds are consistent
with the rain outlook which favours above average falls.
So for every ten years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven
June quarters are expected to be cooler than average over these parts of
northern Australia, with about three or four being warmer.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian
Oceans affect Australian temperatures. During the June quarter, history shows this
effect on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over most of northern
Australia, except in parts of Queensland's southern inland where it is only
weakly consistent (see background information).
The minimum temperature outlook for the June quarter shows a strong gradient in
probabilities across northern Australia. A moderate to strong shifts in the odds favours warmer
nights in eastern Queensland, while cooler nights are favoured in the western NT
History shows the oceans' effect on minimum temperatures in the April to June period
to be moderately consistent over Queensland and the northern half of the NT. In the
southern NT the effect is only weakly or very weakly consistent, so caution is advised
in using the outlook in this part of the country.