The pattern of seasonal maximum temperature odds across northern Australia is a result of
the combined effects from above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean
and cooler than average temperatures in the equatorial Pacific
Averaged over May to July, the chances are between 35 and 40% for above-normal
maximum temperatures over much of the NT and Queensland (see map). So for every
ten years with ocean patterns like the current, about six May to July periods are
expected to be cooler than average over these parts of northern Australia, with about
four being warmer.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian
Oceans affect Australian temperatures. During the May to July period, history shows
this effect on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over the
northern halves of the NT and Queensland, but only weakly or very weakly
consistent in the southern halves (see background information).
The neutral pattern of seasonal minimum temperature odds for the May to July period
in northern Australia (see map) is a result of effects from the Indian and Pacific Oceans
cancelling each other out: below normal minimum temperatures are promoted by the
La Niña pattern, while above-normal minimum temperatures are promoted by continuing
higher than average temperatures in eastern parts of the Indian Ocean.
History shows the oceans' effect on minimum temperatures in the May to July period
to be moderately consistent over most of Queensland and the top end of the NT, but
weakly consistent over southern NT.