Start of 2009: Odds even for temperatures for southeastern Australia

For southeast Australia the outlook for daytime temperatures over the first quarter of 2009 (January to March) shows no significant shifts in the odds favouring either warmer or cooler than normal conditions. The outlook for overnight temperatures is similar with no strong signal observed for either warmer or cooler conditions.

The chances of increased daytime temperatures over January to March are around 50% for Tasmania, Victoria, NSW and SA. This means for every ten years with ocean patterns like the current, about 5 would be expected to be warmer than average in terms of daytime temperatures averaged over January to March, while five would be expected to be cooler. For southeast Australia, neither the Pacific nor Indian Ocean are contributing to any significant shift in odds towards warmer or drier conditions. Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian temperatures. During January to March, history shows this effect on maximum temperatures to be moderately to highly consistent over the northeastern half of NSW, and moderately consistent for far southern NSW, Victoria, southern SA and Tasmania. However, over northern parts of SA and a band from Broken Hill to Canberra confidence is only weakly to very weakly consistent, thus the outlook for these areas needs to be used with caution (see background information). For most of the southeastern region the outlook for overnight minimum temperatures shows no significant shifts in the odds favouring either warmer or cooler conditions. However, history shows the oceans' effect on minimum temperatures from January to March to be weakly to very weakly consistent over all of southeastern Australia and thus, this outlook needs to be used with caution for all areas of southeastern Australia.

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More information on this outlook is available Monday to Friday from 9.00am to 5.00pm local time by contacting the Bureau's Climate Services sections in Queensland, NSW, SA, Victoria and Tasmania at the following numbers:

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 22^nd January 2009

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for September to November 2008 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for September to November 2008 - base period 1961-1990

Background Information

• The Bureau's seasonal outlooks are general statements about the probability or risk of wetter or drier than average weather over a three-month period. The outlooks are based on the statistics of chance (the odds) taken from Australian rainfall/temperatures and sea surface temperature records for the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. They are not, however, categorical predictions about future rainfall, and they are not about rainfall within individual months of the three-month outlook period. The temperature outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire three-month outlook period. Information about whether individual days or weeks may be unusually hot or cold, is unavailable.

• This outlook is a summary. More detail is available from the contact people or from SILO (www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/SClimate.shtml).

• Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it, available from the National Climate Centre. These outlooks should be used as a tool in risk management and decision making. The benefits accrue from long-term use, say over 10 years. At any given time, the probabilities may seem inaccurate, but taken over several years, the advantages of taking account of the risks should outweigh the disadvantages. For more information on the use of probabilities, farmers could contact their local departments of agriculture or primary industry.

• Model Consistency and Outlook Confidence: Strong consistency means that tests of the model on historical data show a high correlation between the most likely outlook category (above/below median) and the verifying observation (above/below median). In this situation relatively high confidence can be placed in the outlook probabilities. Low consistency means the historical relationship, and therefore outlook confidence, is weak. In the places and seasons where the outlooks are most skilful, the category of the eventual outcome (above or below median) is consistent with the category favoured in the outlook about 75% of the time. In the least skilful areas, the outlooks perform no better than random chance or guessing. The rainfall outlooks perform best in eastern and northern Australia between July and January, but are less useful in autumn and in the west of the continent. The skill at predicting seasonal maximum temperature peaks in early winter and drops off marginally during the second half of the year. The lowest point in skill occurs in early autumn. The skill at predicting seasonal minimum temperature peaks in late autumn and again in mid-spring. There are also two distinct periods when the skill is lowest - namely late summer and mid-winter. However, it must always be remembered that the outlooks are statements of chance or risk. For example, if you were told there was a 50:50 chance of a horse winning a race but it ran second, the original assessment of a 50:50 chance could still have been correct.

• The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is calculated using the barometric pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI is one indicator of the stage of El Niño or La Niña events in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is best considered in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures, which form the basis of the outlooks. A moderate to strongly negative SOI (persistently below –10) is usually characteristic of El Niño, which is often associated with below average rainfall over eastern Australia, and a weaker than normal monsoon in the north. A moderate to strongly positive SOI (persistently above +10) is usually characteristic of La Niña, which is often associated with above average rainfall over parts of tropical and eastern Australia, and an earlier than normal start to the northern monsoon season. The Australian impacts of 23 El Niño events since 1900 are summarized on the Bureau's web site (www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/).