Odds point to a warmer than normal season, especially in the south

The northern Australian outlook for maximum temperatures averaged over the period from August to October, shows that warmer than normal days are favoured for most of the Northern Territory and Queensland, with southern areas having the greater odds.

The pattern of seasonal temperature odds across northern Australia is a result of recent warm conditions in the Indian Ocean and a warming Pacific. The chance that the average August-October maximum temperature will exceed the long-term median maximum temperature, is above 60% in all but the far north of the region. In the southern half, the chance is mostly above 70%, with values above 80% in southern Queensland. This means that for every ten years with ocean patterns like the current, about six to nine would be expected to be warmer than average during the August to October period over most of the NT and Queensland, with about one to four years being cooler. Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian temperatures. During August to October, history shows this effect on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across most of northern Australia, with the exception of the far north where it is only weakly consistent (see background information). The outlook for mean minimum temperatures over August-October is broadly similar, with moderate to strong shifts in the odds favouring warmer than normal conditions in northern Australia. Cape York Peninsula is the exception. The chance of a seasonal average above the long-term median minimum temperature, is between 60 and 80% over much of the NT, and southern and western Queensland. In contrast, 35 to 40% chances across Cape York Peninsula in Queensland indicate a below average seasonal minimum is favoured. History shows the oceans' effect on minimum temperatures in August to October to be moderately consistent over most of Queensland, and the eastern parts of the NT. In western parts of the NT the effect is generally only weakly consistent, so this outlook should be used with caution in that area.

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More information on this outlook is available by contacting the Bureau's Climate Services sections in Queensland and the Northern Territory at the following numbers:

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 26^th August 2009

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for April to June 2009 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for April to June 2009 - base period 1961-1990

Background Information

• The Bureau's seasonal outlooks are general statements about the probability or risk of wetter or drier than average weather over a three-month period. The outlooks are based on the statistics of chance (the odds) taken from Australian rainfall/temperatures and sea surface temperature records for the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. They are not, however, categorical predictions about future rainfall, and they are not about rainfall within individual months of the three-month outlook period. The temperature outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire three-month outlook period. Information about whether individual days or weeks may be unusually hot or cold, is unavailable.

• This outlook is a summary. More detail is available from the contact people or from SILO (Seasonal Climate Outlook Products).

• Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it, available from the National Climate Centre. These outlooks should be used as a tool in risk management and decision making. The benefits accrue from long-term use, say over 10 years. At any given time, the probabilities may seem inaccurate, but taken over several years, the advantages of taking account of the risks should outweigh the disadvantages. For more information on the use of probabilities, farmers could contact their local departments of agriculture or primary industry.

• Model Consistency and Outlook Confidence: Strong consistency means that tests of the model on historical data show a high correlation between the most likely outlook category (above/below median) and the verifying observation (above/below median). In this situation relatively high confidence can be placed in the outlook probabilities. Low consistency means the historical relationship, and therefore outlook confidence, is weak. In the places and seasons where the outlooks are most skilful, the category of the eventual outcome (above or below median) is consistent with the category favoured in the outlook about 75% of the time. In the least skilful areas, the outlooks perform no better than random chance or guessing. The rainfall outlooks perform best in eastern and northern Australia between July and January, but are less useful in autumn and in the west of the continent. The skill at predicting seasonal maximum temperature peaks in early winter and drops off marginally during the second half of the year. The lowest point in skill occurs in early autumn. The skill at predicting seasonal minimum temperature peaks in late autumn and again in mid-spring. There are also two distinct periods when the skill is lowest - namely late summer and mid-winter. However, it must always be remembered that the outlooks are statements of chance or risk. For example, if you were told there was a 50:50 chance of a horse winning a race but it ran second, the original assessment of a 50:50 chance could still have been correct.

• The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is calculated using the barometric pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI is one indicator of the stage of El Niño or La Niña events in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is best considered in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures, which form the basis of the outlooks. A moderate to strongly negative SOI (persistently below –10) is usually characteristic of El Niño, which is often associated with below average rainfall over eastern Australia, and a weaker than normal monsoon in the north. A moderate to strongly positive SOI (persistently above +10) is usually characteristic of La Niña, which is often associated with above average rainfall over parts of tropical and eastern Australia, and an earlier than normal start to the northern monsoon season. The Australian impacts of 25 El Niño events since 1900 are summarized on the Bureau's web site (El Niño - Detailed Australian Analysis).