The pattern of seasonal temperature odds across WA is a result of recent warm conditions
in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
The chance that the average spring maximum temperature will exceed the
long-term median maximum temperature, is above 55% across all of WA, with most of the
state above 60%, grading to above 70% in the far northeast Kimberley.
This means that for every ten years with ocean patterns like the current, about six
or seven would be expected to be warmer than average during spring
over most of WA, while about three or four would be expected to be cooler.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian
Oceans affect Australian temperatures. During spring, history shows this effect
on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over the eastern half of WA
grading to weakly consistent in the west and far north (see ).
Users therefore need to be cautious in applying this outlook in the weakly
The chance of the average spring minimum temperature exceeding the long-term
median minimum temperature is above 70% for most of WA, with areas of above
80% in the southern Gascoyne, northern Goldfields and northern Interior. Thus,
out of ten years with ocean patterns similar to the current conditions, about
seven or eight would be expected to be warmer than normal across most of WA.
History shows the oceans' effect on minimum temperatures during spring to be
moderately to highly consistent over most of the WA.