National Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for August to October 2010, issued 22nd July 2010
The national outlook for maximum temperatures over late winter to mid-spring (August to October) suggests warmer than normal days for southern Australia, while warmer nights are favoured for much of the continent.
The pattern of seasonal temperature odds across Australia is a result of recent warm conditions in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans, with the Indian Ocean the major contributor in this outlook.
The chance that the average August-October maximum temperature will exceed the long-term median maximum temperature exceeds 60% over southern parts of Australia, as well as western WA and far northern parts of NT and Queensland. These odds increase to over 70% in parts of inland southwest WA. This means that for every ten years with ocean patterns like the current, about six to seven years would be expected to be warmer than average during the August to October period over southern Australia, with about three to four years being cooler.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian temperatures. During August to October, history shows this effect on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across most of the country, with the exception of the southeast and far north where it is only weakly consistent (see background information).
The chance that the average August-October minimum temperature will exceed the long-term median minimum temperature is above 60% in all but the eastern parts of Victoria and Tasmania. Probabilities exceed 70% over large parts of western and eastern Australia, while the chance of exceeding the average is greater than 80% over a large region in the west of WA.
History shows the oceans' effect on minimum temperatures in August to October to be moderately consistent over the southern half of WA, much of Queensland, NSW and SA. Elsewhere the effect is generally only weakly consistent.
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The following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre can be contacted about this outlook: Agata Imielska on (02) 9296 1539, Andrew Watkins on (03) 9669 4360, Elise Chandler on (03) 9669 4344.
Regional commentary is available from the Climate Services Sections in the Bureau's Regional Offices:
|Queensland -||(07) 3239 8660|
|New South Wales -||(02) 9296 1555|
|Victoria -||(03) 9669 4949|
|Tasmania -||(03) 6221 2043|
|South Australia -||(08) 8366 2664|
|Western Australia -||(08) 9263 2222|
|The Northern Territory -||(08) 8920 3813|
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 24nd August 2010
The Bureau's seasonal outlooks are general statements about the probability or risk of wetter or drier than average weather over a three-month period. The outlooks are based on the statistics of chance (the odds) taken from Australian rainfall/temperatures and sea surface temperature records for the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. They are not, however, categorical predictions about future rainfall, and they are not about rainfall within individual months of the three-month outlook period. The temperature outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire three-month outlook period. Information about whether individual days or weeks may be unusually hot or cold, is unavailable.
This outlook is a summary. More detail is available from the contact people or from SILO (Seasonal Climate Outlook Products).
Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it, available from the National Climate Centre. These outlooks should be used as a tool in risk management and decision making. The benefits accrue from long-term use, say over 10 years. At any given time, the probabilities may seem inaccurate, but taken over several years, the advantages of taking account of the risks should outweigh the disadvantages. For more information on the use of probabilities, farmers could contact their local departments of agriculture or primary industry.
Model Consistency and Outlook Confidence: Strong consistency means that tests of the model on historical data show a high correlation between the most likely outlook category (above/below median) and the verifying observation (above/below median). In this situation relatively high confidence can be placed in the outlook probabilities. Low consistency means the historical relationship, and therefore outlook confidence, is weak. In the places and seasons where the outlooks are most skilful, the category of the eventual outcome (above or below median) is consistent with the category favoured in the outlook about 75% of the time. In the least skilful areas, the outlooks perform no better than random chance or guessing. The rainfall outlooks perform best in eastern and northern Australia between July and January, but are less useful in autumn and in the west of the continent. The skill at predicting seasonal maximum temperature peaks in early winter and drops off marginally during the second half of the year. The lowest point in skill occurs in early autumn. The skill at predicting seasonal minimum temperature peaks in late autumn and again in mid-spring. There are also two distinct periods when the skill is lowest - namely late summer and mid-winter. However, it must always be remembered that the outlooks are statements of chance or risk. For example, if you were told there was a 50:50 chance of a horse winning a race but it ran second, the original assessment of a 50:50 chance could still have been correct.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is calculated using the barometric pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI is one indicator of the stage of El Niño or La Niña events in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is best considered in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures, which form the basis of the outlooks. A moderate to strongly negative SOI (persistently below −10) is usually characteristic of El Niño, which is often associated with below average rainfall over eastern Australia, and a weaker than normal monsoon in the north. A moderate to strongly positive SOI (persistently above +10) is usually characteristic of La Niña, which is often associated with above average rainfall over parts of tropical and eastern Australia, and an earlier than normal start to the northern monsoon season. The Australian impacts of 25 El Niño events since 1900 are summarized on the Bureau's web site (El Niño - Detailed Australian Analysis).
© Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology