Southeast Australian temperature outlook
Issued 22 January 2014
The February to April maximum temperature outlook shows chances of greater than 60% for warmer than normal days over all but the northwest corner of Tasmania, east Gippsland in Victoria, and southeast NSW (see map). So for every ten February to April outlooks with similar odds to these, about six of them would be expected to be warmer than average over these areas, while about four years would be cooler.
The chances of receiving cooler or warmer than normal daytime temperatures for February to April is roughly equal (i.e., close to 50%) across the rest of southeast Australia.
The chances that the average minimum temperature for February to April will exceed the long-term median are greater than 60% over the southern two thirds of Tasmania, eastern Victoria, the Mid North Coast of NSW and far southwest of SA.
The chances of receiving cooler or warmer than normal night-time temperatures for February to April is roughly equal (i.e., close to 50%) over the rest of southeast Australia.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with the majority of atmospheric and oceanic indicators close to their long-term average. Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau suggest ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist at least for the next three months.
Oceans surrounding Australia are also expected to remain close to their 1981-2010 average. Atmospheric pressures may be below average over some southern areas.
How accurate is the outlook?
Maximum temperature outlook accuracy for the February to April period is:
- Moderate over most of southeast Australia (with exceptions listed below)
- Low over central Victoria, southwest NSW and northern SA
Minimum temperature outlook accuracy for the February to April period is:
- Moderate over Tasmania, central and southwest SA, and the southeast corner of Victoria and NSW
- Low to very low elsewhere