Southeast Australian temperature outlook

Issued 22 January 2014

Warm days and nights likely for the far southeast

Text details of chance of warmer maximum and minimum temperatures

Summary

  • Warmer days are more likely for most of Tasmania, the far southeast of NSW and the eastern corner of Victoria
  • Warmer nights are more likely for most of Tasmania, eastern Victoria, and pockets of eastern New South Wales
  • The chances of warmer or cooler days/nights are roughly equal across the rest of southeast Australia
  • Climate influences are close to their long-term average, including a neutral tropical Pacific
  • Outlook accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate over most of southeast Australia, except for central Victoria and northern SA and southwest NSW, where accuracy is low. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate over Tasmania, central and southwest SA, and the southeast corner of Victoria and NSW, while accuracy is generally low to very low elsewhere.
Probability of exceeding median maximum temperature, larger view Probability of exceeding median minimum temperature, larger view

Details

The February to April maximum temperature outlook shows chances of greater than 60% for warmer than normal days over all but the northwest corner of Tasmania, east Gippsland in Victoria, and southeast NSW (see map). So for every ten February to April outlooks with similar odds to these, about six of them would be expected to be warmer than average over these areas, while about four years would be cooler.

The chances of receiving cooler or warmer than normal daytime temperatures for February to April is roughly equal (i.e., close to 50%) across the rest of southeast Australia.

The chances that the average minimum temperature for February to April will exceed the long-term median are greater than 60% over the southern two thirds of Tasmania, eastern Victoria, the Mid North Coast of NSW and far southwest of SA.

The chances of receiving cooler or warmer than normal night-time temperatures for February to April is roughly equal (i.e., close to 50%) over the rest of southeast Australia.

Climate influences

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with the majority of atmospheric and oceanic indicators close to their long-term average. Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau suggest ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist at least for the next three months.

Oceans surrounding Australia are also expected to remain close to their 1981-2010 average. Atmospheric pressures may be below average over some southern areas.

How accurate is the outlook?

Maximum temperature outlook accuracy for the February to April period is:

  • Moderate over most of southeast Australia (with exceptions listed below)
  • Low over central Victoria, southwest NSW and northern SA

Minimum temperature outlook accuracy for the February to April period is:

  • Moderate over Tasmania, central and southwest SA, and the southeast corner of Victoria and NSW
  • Low to very low elsewhere