Western Australian temperature outlook

Issued 22 January 2014

Warmer nights likely near western and southern coastlines of Western Australia

Text details of chance of warmer maximum and minimum temperatures

Summary

  • Warmer days are more likely in the southwest corner WA
  • Warmer nights are more likely near western and southern coastlines of WA
  • Climate influences are close to their long-term average, including a neutral tropical Pacific
  • Outlook accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate over most of southern WA, and parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate over much of western and southern WA, while in parts of the north and east accuracy is low to very low; see accuracy tab for more detail.
Probability of exceeding median maximum temperature, larger view Probability of exceeding median minimum temperature, larger view

Details

The February to April maximum temperature outlook shows chances of greater than 60% for warmer than normal days in the far southwest corner of WA (see map). So for every ten February to April outlooks with similar odds to these, about six of them would be expected to be warmer than average over these areas, while about four years would be cooler.

However, the chances of receiving cooler or warmer than normal daytime temperatures for February to April is roughly equal (i.e., close to 50%) over most of the State.

The chances that the average minimum temperature for February to April will exceed the long-term median are greater than 60% near the western and southern coastlines of WA.

Similarly to maximum temperatures, over most of the State, the chances of receiving cooler or warmer than normal night-time temperatures for February to April is roughly equal (i.e., close to 50%).

Climate influences

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with the majority of atmospheric and oceanic indicators close to their long-term average. Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau suggest ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist at least for the next three months.

Oceans surrounding Australia are also expected to remain close to their 1981-2010 average. Atmospheric pressures may be below average over some southern areas.

How accurate is the outlook?

Maximum temperature outlook accuracy for the February to April period is:

  • Moderate over most of southern WA, and parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne
  • Low elsewhere in WA

Minimum temperature outlook accuracy for the February to April period is:

  • Moderate over much of western and southern WA
  • Low to very low elsewhere in WA