Southeast Australian temperature outlook

Issued 24 February 2014

Warm days and nights likely for the far southeast

Text details of chance of warmer maximum and minimum temperatures

Summary

  • Warmer days are more likely for Tasmania, southern Victoria and southern coastal parts of SA
  • Warmer nights are more likely for Tasmania, Victoria, New South Wales and southeastern parts of SA
  • Climate influences are close to their long-term average, including a neutral tropical Pacific
  • Outlook accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate over most of southeast Australia, except for southeast Victoria, the pastoral districts of SA and western parts of NSW, where accuracy is low. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate over Tasmania, southern Victoria and the far west of SA, and generally low to very low elsewhere.
Probability of exceeding median maximum temperature, larger view Probability of exceeding median minimum temperature, larger view

Details

The autumn maximum temperature outlook shows chances are greater than 60% for warmer than normal days over southern Victoria and southeastern parts of SA. Odds increase to greater than 80% over Tasmania (see map). So for every ten autumn outlooks with similar odds to these, about six of them would be expected to be warmer than average over these areas, while about four years would be cooler.

The chances of receiving cooler or warmer than normal daytime temperatures for autumn is roughly equal across the rest of southeast Australia.

The chances that the average minimum temperature for autumn will exceed the long-term median are greater than 60% over NSW, Victoria, eastern and southeastern parts of SA, with odds increasing to greater than 80% over Tasmania and the southwest coast of Victoria.

The chances of receiving cooler or warmer than normal night-time temperatures for is roughly equal over the western half of SA.

Climate influences

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with the majority of atmospheric and oceanic indicators close to their long-term average. Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau suggest ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist at least for the next three months.

Oceans surrounding Australia are also expected to remain close to their 1981-2010 average. Atmospheric pressures may be below average over some southern areas.

How accurate is the outlook?

Maximum temperature outlook accuracy for the autumn period is:

  • Moderate over most of northeast NSW
  • Low over southeast Victoria, western NSW and pastoral districts of SA

Minimum temperature outlook accuracy for the autumn period is:

  • Moderate over Tasmania, south coastal parts of Victoria and the far west of SA
  • Low to very low across NSW and across northern and southeastern parts of SA