Western Australian temperature outlook

Issued 24 February 2014

Cooler autumn favoured in the Kimberley, warmer nights in the southwest coast

Text details of chance of warmer maximum and minimum temperatures

Summary

  • Cooler days and nights are more likely in the Kimberley
  • Warmer nights are more likely near the western WA coast
  • Warmer nights are more likely near the western WA coast
  • Outlook accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate over northern, western and central parts of WA. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate over northern and eastern WA
Probability of exceeding median maximum temperature, larger view Probability of exceeding median minimum temperature, larger view

Details

The autumn maximum temperature outlook shows chances of less than 40% for warmer than normal days over the Kimberley (see map). So for every ten autumn outlooks with similar odds to these, about six of them would be expected to be cooler than average over the region, while about four years would be expected to be warmer. For most of the remainder of the State, the chances of receiving cooler or warmer than normal daytime temperatures for autumn is roughly equal, though small parts of west coast WA and the far southwest have a 60% or greater chance of above average maximum temperatures.

The chances that the average minimum temperature for autumn will exceed the long-term median are greater than 60% near the western WA coast, whilst the chances of warmer than normal daytime temperatures for autumn is less than 40% over the Kimberley. For the rest of the State, the chances of receiving cooler or warmer than normal night time temperatures for autumn is roughly equal (i.e., close to 50%).

Climate influences

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with the majority of atmospheric and oceanic indicators close to their long-term average. Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau suggest ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist at least for the next three months.

Oceans surrounding Australia are also expected to remain close to their 1981-2010 average. Atmospheric pressures may be below average over some southern areas.

How accurate is the outlook?

Maximum temperature outlook accuracy for the autumn period is:

  • Moderate over northern, western and central parts of WA
  • Low over southeastern parts of the State

Minimum temperature outlook accuracy for the autumn period is:

  • Moderate over northern and eastern parts of WA
  • Low to very low across the southwest of the State