Southeast Australian temperature outlook

Issued 26 March 2014

Warmer season more likely over most of southeast Australia

Text details of chance of warmer maximum and minimum temperatures

Summary

  • Warmer days are more likely over most of the eastern States and southeast SA with greatest odds for southern Victoria and Tasmania
  • The chances of warmer or cooler days are roughly equal over western and central SA
  • Warmer nights are more likely over all of southeast Australia
  • Climate influences include a warming tropical Pacific, and a warm to near-normal Indian Ocean
  • Outlook accuracy for maximum temperatures is high over parts of northern SA, eastern NSW, most of Tasmania and moderate elsewhere, except for the far south of Tasmania where the accuracy is low
  • Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate to high over most of southeast Australia, except for the far southeast of SA, western Victoria, and the far northeast of NSW where accuracy is low to very low.
Probability of exceeding median maximum temperature, larger view Probability of exceeding median minimum temperature, larger view

Details

The April to June maximum temperature outlook shows chances of greater than 60% for warmer than normal days for southern SA, most of NSW and all of Victoria and Tasmania. Chances exceed 80% over southern Victoria and Tasmania. So for every ten April to June outlooks with similar odds to these, about six to eight of them would be warmer than average over these areas, while about two to four would be cooler.

Over most of SA and far western NSW the chances of warmer or cooler daytime temperatures are roughly equal.

The chances that the average minimum temperature for April to June will exceed the long- term median are greater than 60% over all of southeast Australia. Chances exceed 80% over all of Tasmania, Victoria, most of NSW and southeast SA.

Climate influences

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) currently remains neutral, but the tropical Pacific is currently warming. Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that further warming of the tropical Pacific is likely in the coming months, with most models approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds during the southern winter.

Sea surface temperatures surrounding Australia, and to the west, are expected to be near normal to warmer than normal.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influence is minimal during the first part of the outlook period, with a neutral IOD likely for the second part.

How accurate is the outlook?

Maximum temperature outlook accuracy for the April to June period is:

  • Moderate over southeast Australia

Minimum temperature outlook accuracy for the April to June period is:

  • Moderate to high over most of southeast Australia, except for
  • the far southeast of SA, and the far northeast of NSW, where accuracy is low to very low