Western Australian temperature outlook

Issued 26 March 2014

Warmer nights more likely over most of WA

Text details of chance of warmer maximum and minimum temperatures

Summary

  • Warmer days are more likely over the Kimberley and near the south coast of WA
  • Warmer nights are more likely over most of WA
  • Climate influences include a warming tropical Pacific, and a warm to near-normal Indian Ocean
  • Outlook accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate to high over the northern half, and western WA, whilst accuracy is low to very low for the southeast, and parts of central WA
  • Outlook accuracy for minimum temperatures is moderate to high over eastern to central parts of WA, whilst accuracy is low to very low for parts of western WA.
Probability of exceeding median maximum temperature, larger view Probability of exceeding median minimum temperature, larger view

Details

The April to June maximum temperature outlook shows chances of warmer than normal days are 60 to 70% across the Kimberley and near the south coast with chances greater than 75% in the north and west Kimberley. So for every ten April to June outlooks with similar odds to these, about six to eight of them would be warmer than average over these areas, while about two to four would be cooler.

For the rest of WA, the chances of warmer or cooler daytime temperatures are roughly equal.

The chances that the average minimum temperature for April to June will exceed the long- term median are greater than 60% over most of WA, with chances exceeding 70% in the Kimberley and near the south coast.

The chances of receiving cooler or warmer than normal night-time temperatures for April to June is roughly equal (i.e., close to 50%) over the west Pilbara and northern Gascoyne.

Climate influences

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) currently remains neutral, but the tropical Pacific is currently warming. Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that further warming of the tropical Pacific is likely in the coming months, with most models approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds during the southern winter.

Sea surface temperatures surrounding Australia, and to the west, are expected to be near normal to warmer than normal during the April to June period.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influence is minimal during the first part of the outlook period, with a neutral IOD likely for the second part.

How accurate is the outlook?

Maximum temperature outlook accuracy for the April to June period is:

  • High over the northern half of WA
  • Moderate in western parts of WA
  • Low to very low in the southeast, and parts of central WA

Minimum temperature outlook accuracy for the April to June period is:

  • Moderate to high over eastern WA, as well as areas of central WA and in the west Pilbara
  • Low to very low in parts of western WA