Southeast Australian temperature outlook

Issued 28 May 2014

A warmer winter likely for southeast Australia

Text details of chance of warmer maximum and minimum temperatures

Summary

  • Warmer winter days and nights more likely for southeast Australia
  • Climate influences include a warming tropical Pacific, and an easing of the warm eastern Indian Ocean
  • Outlook accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate to high over most of southeast Australia, with low to very low accuracy over the western half of SA.
  • Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate over most of southeast Australia except for parts of the eastern SA, and central and northern parts of NSW where accuracy is low.
Probability of exceeding median maximum temperature, larger view Probability of exceeding median minimum temperature, larger view

Details

The chances that winter maximum temperature outlook will exceed the median maximum temperature is greater than 60% over southeast Australia. Chances are greater than 80% over southern and eastern coastal regions, and Tasmania. So for every ten winter outlooks with similar odds to these, about six to eight of them would be warmer than average over these areas, while about two to four would be cooler.

The chances that the average minimum temperature for winter 2014 will exceed the long-term median are greater than 60% over southeast Australia. Chances are greater than 80% over southern Victoria, Tasmania and the eastern seaboard of NSW (see map).

Climate influences

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a state of transition towards El Niño. Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that further warming of the tropical Pacific is likely in the coming months, with most models approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds during late winter.

Models indicate the currently warm tropical eastern Indian Ocean is likely to return to near normal. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to remain neutral for the next three months, and is therefore unlikely to have a significant influence upon this outlook. However, the chance of a positive IOD is elevated during El Niño.

How accurate is the outlook?

Maximum temperature outlook accuracy for the winter period is:

  • Moderate to high over NSW, Victoria, most of Tasmania and eastern SA
  • Low to very low over western and central SA
Minimum temperature outlook accuracy for the winter period is:
  • Moderate over most of SA, Victoria, Tasmania and eastern NSW
  • Low over eastern parts of SA, and northern and central parts of NSW