MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 13^th APRIL 2000

Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for May to July 2000

Cooler than average days more likely in the west and north

The seasonal temperature outlook for May - July shows that, apart from southeastern Australia, most parts of the country have only a 30 to 45% chance of above average seasonal maximum temperatures (see first map below). In other words, the probability of a cooler than normal season is around 55 to 70%.

However, in Victoria, Tasmania, and the southern parts of both South Australia and N.S.W., a warmer than average season is the more likely outcome having chances of 55 to 60%. The outlook system has moderate skill or reliability in all areas except northern N.S.W. and southern Queensland for the May to July period.

The picture is almost the reverse for May-July seasonal minimum temperatures. Most of northern Australia has a 60 to 70% chance of above average minima, but in the southeast of the country probabilities are mostly between 30 and 40% (see second map below). May to July seasonal minimum temperature forecasts have moderate to high skill or reliability in all areas except the southeast of the country and the southern half of South Australia.

Background Information:

• These outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire outlook period. Information about individual days or weeks, which may be unusually hot or cold, is not given.
• This outlook uses data from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Indian Ocean remains warmer than normal close to Australia, although significant cooling occurred in March.
• This outlook represents a summary: more detail is available from the contact people or web site listed below.
• Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available from the National Climate Centre.

For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:

Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4603
John Chataway on (03) 9669 4859
Scott Power on (03) 9669 4085

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Temperature Outlooks

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Rainfall Outlooks

Maximum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.

Minimum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.