MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 13th APRIL 2000
Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for May to July 2000
Cooler than average days more likely in the west and north
The seasonal temperature outlook for May - July shows that, apart from southeastern Australia, most parts of the country have only a 30 to 45% chance of above average seasonal maximum temperatures (see first map below). In other words, the probability of a cooler than normal season is around 55 to 70%.
However, in Victoria, Tasmania, and the southern parts of both South Australia and N.S.W., a warmer than average season is the more likely outcome having chances of 55 to 60%. The outlook system has moderate skill or reliability in all areas except northern N.S.W. and southern Queensland for the May to July period.
The picture is almost the reverse for May-July seasonal minimum temperatures. Most of northern Australia has a 60 to 70% chance of above average minima, but in the southeast of the country probabilities are mostly between 30 and 40% (see second map below). May to July seasonal minimum temperature forecasts have moderate to high skill or reliability in all areas except the southeast of the country and the southern half of South Australia.
For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:
Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527