MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 19^th April 2001

Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for May to July 2001

Warmer days favoured in east and south

The National Climate Centre's seasonal temperature outlook shows an increased likelihood for a warmer than average season across much of eastern and southern Australia. In NSW, southern Queensland, Victoria, Tasmania and S. A., the chances of above average seasonal maximum temperatures for the May to July period are about 60 to 70%, nearing 75% in parts of Victoria (see first map below).

This means that in years with climate patterns like the current, about 6 or 7 out of every 10 are warmer than the long-term May-July median, whilst about 3 or 4 out of 10 are cooler. In addition, the outlook skill is moderately high in Victoria, Tasmania and southeast S. A. for this particular season.

In other areas, the outlook chances are close to the baseline level of 50%.

The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures points to warmer than average nights in Queensland, northern NSW and southern W. A. The probabilities in these areas are mostly in the 60 to 75% range (see second map below), and the skill is moderate to high. Conversely, cooler than average nights are more likely in parts of the Kimberley in W. A. and adjacent regions of western N. T.

Background Information:

• These outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire outlook period. Information about individual days or weeks, which may be unusually hot or cold, is not given.
• This outlook uses data from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The tropical eastern Pacific has warmed rapidly and has had the most effect on the outlook probabilities. The central Indian Ocean has also warmed strongly but remains slightly cooler than average.
• This outlook represents a summary: more detail is available from the contact people or from SILO.
• Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available from the National Climate Centre.

For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:

Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4603
Bill Wright on (03) 9669 4781.

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17^th MAY 2001.

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Temperature Outlooks

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Rainfall Outlooks

Maximum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.

Minimum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.