Seasonal Climate Outlook Temperature Archive

Frequently Asked Questions

Three-month Temperature Probabilities


Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for Spring (Sep - Nov) 2000

Odds favour warm spring in the tropics

The National Climate Centre's seasonal temperature outlook for spring shows increased chances for above average seasonal maximum temperatures across much of the country, but particularly in the tropical north. The probabilities reach 60 to 70% there (see first map below), but chances are also above 55% in western W.A. and parts of southeast Australia. The chances are close to 50% elsewhere.

At this time of year, the maximum temperature outlooks have moderate skill or reliability over Queensland, northern NSW and eastern N.T., but lower skill in the west and southeast.

The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures is shown in the second map. As with maximum temperatures, the odds favour warmer than average conditions over much of the nation. The exception is in southern Queensland and northern NSW where a cooler than average season is marginally more likely.

For spring, seasonal minimum temperature forecasts show moderate skill in most areas apart from Tasmania, southeast Queensland, and the east of both NSW and Victoria.

Background Information:

  • These outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire outlook period. Information about individual days or weeks, which may be unusually hot or cold, is not given.
  • This outlook uses data from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Recently, the Indian Ocean has been warmer than average, and the Pacific close to average.
  • This outlook represents a summary: more detail is available from the contact people or from SILO.
  • Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available from the National Climate Centre.

The Bureau of Meteorology is hosting a workshop, CLI-MANAGE, in Albury from 23-25 October, and places are still open for anyone wishing to attend. Participants will learn, and discuss, how climate information can assist their decision-making in climate-sensitive industries, such as agriculture. For more information please contact Linda Sampson on (03) 9669 4072.

For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:

Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4603
Bill Wright on (03) 9669 4781
Scott Power on (03) 9669 4085

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Temperature Outlooks

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Rainfall Outlooks

Maximum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.

Minimum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.

probability of exceeding median 
maximum temperature - click to enlarge
Figure 1: Maximum Temperature - Click on the map for full resolution.

probability of exceeding median 
minimum temperature - click to enlarge
Figure 2: Minimum Temperature - Click on the map for full resolution.

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