MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 14^th February 2001

Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for Autumn 2001

Warmer in north and southeast

The National Climate Centre's seasonal temperature outlook shows that the above average temperatures experienced in the southeast during Summer, stand a good chance of persisting into Autumn. In the southeast, the chances of above average seasonal maximum temperatures are about 55 to 65%, as they are also in a broad zone across northern Australia (see first map below).

This means that in years with climate patterns like the current, about 6 out of every 10 are warmer than the long-term Autumn median, whilst about 4 out of 10 are cooler. The chances are about 50:50 in other parts of the country.

The skill of the outlooks is moderate to high in Queensland and the north of the N.T. but low elsewhere.

The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures favours warmer than average nights across most of the country. The chances of this occurring reach 60 to 70% over the southern half of the country and also in eastern Queensland (see second map below). The outlooks have moderate skill in many parts of the country for Autumn.

Background Information:

• These outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire outlook period. Information about individual days or weeks, which may be unusually hot or cold, is not given.
• This outlook uses data from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The central Indian Ocean is cooler than average and has been cooling strongly, although waters south of the Bight remain warmer than average. The tropical Pacific has been a little cooler than average for several months and maintains some of the features of a weak La Niņa pattern.
• This outlook represents a summary: more detail is available from the contact people or from SILO.
• Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available from the National Climate Centre.

For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:

Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4603
Bill Wright on (03) 9669 4781
Scott Power on (03) 9669 4085.

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Temperature Outlooks

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Rainfall Outlooks

Maximum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.

Minimum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.