MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 17th January 2001
Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for February to April 2001
Little signal in seasonal temperature odds
The National Climate Centre's seasonal temperature outlook for February to April shows the chances of above average seasonal maximum temperatures are close to 50% over most of the country (see first map below). This means that in years with climate patterns like the current, about 5 out of every 10 are warmer than the long-term median during February to April, whilst about 5 out of 10 are cooler. Alternatively we could say that as far as the Bureau's statistical outlook scheme is concerned, below or above average maximum temperatures are about as equally likely.
The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures is more emphatic with 60 to 65% chances of warmer than average nights in northern Queensland and southwest W.A. (see second map below). In contrast though, the probabilities are below 40% over the southern half of the Northern Territory and in some of northern Western Australia meaning that cooler than average nights are favoured here. The outlooks have moderate to high skill in the tropics for the Feb-April period, but low skill elsewhere.
For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:
Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527