MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 13^th JULY 2000

Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for August to October 2000

Odds favour warm season across the country

The National Climate Centre's seasonal temperature outlook for August to October shows increased chances for above average seasonal maximum temperatures across the entire country. The highest probabilities occur in southwest W.A. where they reach 70 to 75% (see first map below), but chances are above 60% for most of the country. For Tasmania and the east coast, the chances are between 55 and 60%.

At this time of year, the outlook system has moderate skill or reliability across most of the country, but is lower in the north and southeast.

The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures is shown in the second map. As with maximum temperatures, the odds for warmer conditions are up across the entire country.

For this season, seasonal minimum temperature forecasts show high skill in southern W.A. and western S.A., moderate skill in northern Queensland, but lower reliability elsewhere.

Background Information:

• These outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire outlook period. Information about individual days or weeks, which may be unusually hot or cold, is not given.
• This outlook uses data from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Indian Ocean has been warmer than average in recent months.
• This outlook represents a summary: more detail is available from the contact people or from SILO.
• Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available from the National Climate Centre.

For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:

David Jones on (03) 9669 4861
Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4603
John Chataway on (03) 9669 4859
Dean Collins on (03) 9669 4780

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Temperature Outlooks

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Rainfall Outlooks

Maximum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.

Minimum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.