MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 17^th July 2001
Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for August to October 2001

Odds on for warm winter-spring

The current climate patterns favour a warmer than average August to October. The chances of above average seasonal maximum temperatures are over 60% across most of the country (see first map below), according to the National Climate Centre.

Most notably, in southwest W.A. and southern Queensland, the chances are between 70 and 80%. So in years similar to the present, about 7 or 8 out of every 10 are warmer than average in these areas, whilst about 2 or 3 out of 10 are cooler. In addition, the outlook method has moderate to high skill over much of these areas.

The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures is quite similar, especially in the same parts of W.A and Queensland where the odds heavily favour warmer than average nights (see second map below). Forecast skill in southern Queensland is less than for maximum temperatures, however.

Background Information:

• These outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire outlook period. Information about individual days or weeks, which may be unusually hot or cold, is not given.
• This outlook uses data from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The warming of the Indian Ocean has had the strongest impact on the outlook probabilities.
• This outlook represents a summary: more detail is available from the contact people or from SILO.
• Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available from the National Climate Centre.

For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 9:00am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:

Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4603
Clare Mullen on (03) 9669 4296
Scott Power on (03) 9669 4085.

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 15^th AUGUST 2001.

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Temperature Outlooks

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Rainfall Outlooks

Maximum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.

Minimum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.