MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 14^th JUNE 2000

Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for July to September 2000

Odds favour warm season in the west

The seasonal temperature outlook for July to September shows increased chances for above average seasonal maximum temperatures in southern and western areas of the country. The highest probabilities occur in W.A. where they reach 60 to 70% (see first map below), but chances are also above 55% over Victoria, Tasmania, most of South Australia and the southwest of the Northern Territory. Through Queensland though, the chances are reduced - being of the order of 40 to 45%.

The outlook system has moderate skill or reliability in most parts of the country for the current season, except in the southeast where it's low.

The outlook for warmer seasonal minimum temperatures is shown in the second map below. As with maximum temperatures, the odds are up somewhat over southern Western Australia (55-60%), but down across many northern regions where chances range from 40 to 45%.

For this season, seasonal minimum temperature forecasts show high skill in southern W.A., moderate skill in Queensland and northern N.S.W., and low reliability elsewhere.

Background Information:

• These outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire outlook period. Information about individual days or weeks, which may be unusually hot or cold, is not given.
• This outlook uses data from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Indian Ocean, which has warmed recently close to Australia, is the main contributor to the outlooks.
• This outlook represents a summary: more detail is available from the contact people listed below or from SILO.
• Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available from the National Climate Centre.

For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:

Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4603
John Chataway on (03) 9669 4859
Scott Power on (03) 9669 4085

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Temperature Outlooks

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Rainfall Outlooks

Maximum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.

Minimum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.