Seasonal Climate Outlook Temperature Archive

Frequently Asked Questions

Three-month Temperature Probabilities

Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for July to September 2001

Odds point to a warm season

The current climate patterns favour a warmer than average July to September period over much of the country. Most notably, the chances of above average seasonal maximum temperatures are in the 60 to 70% range in large areas of west and south W.A., as well as tropical northern Australia (see first map below), according to the National Climate Centre.

So in years similar to the present, about 6 or 7 out of every 10 are warmer than average in these areas, whilst about 3 or 4 out of 10 are cooler. In addition, the outlook method has moderate to high skill over much of this area.

The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures is similar, especially in west and south W.A. where the odds heavily favour warmer than average nights (see second map below). The chances there range from about 60 to 80%. Warmer than average nights are also favoured over a large part of southern Queensland and northeast NSW with chances of 60 to 65%, that is, about 6 out of every 10 in this kind of situation.

Background Information:

  • These outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire outlook period. Information about individual days or weeks, which may be unusually hot or cold, is not given.
  • This outlook uses data from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The cooling of the Pacific and the warming of the Indian have had roughly equal impact on the outlook probabilities.
  • This outlook represents a summary: more detail is available from the contact people or from SILO.
  • Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available from the National Climate Centre.

For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 9:00am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:

Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4603
Clare Mullen on (03) 9669 4296
Scott Power on (03) 9669 4085.


Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Temperature Outlooks

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Rainfall Outlooks

Maximum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.

Minimum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.

probability of exceeding median
maximum temperature - click to enlarge
Figure 1: Maximum Temperature - Click on the map for full resolution.

probability of exceeding median
minimum temperature - click to enlarge
Figure 2: Minimum Temperature - Click on the map for full resolution.
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