MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 17^th MARCH 2000

Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for April to June 2000

Warm conditions more likely in the west

The seasonal temperature outlook for April - June shows about a 65 to 75% chance of above average seasonal maximum temperatures for the southwest of Western Australia (see first map below). The skill of the outlook system is moderate to high in this part of W.A. for this period.

The forecast also suggests warmer days are more likely for southeast Australia (chances between 70 and 80%), but less likely in southern Queensland and northern N.S.W. where the probabilities are between 20 to 30%. However, the outlook skill is generally low in these regions requiring the probabilities to be treated with more caution.

There is also a 70 to 80% chance that April-June seasonal minimum temperatures in southwest Western Australia will be above average (see second map below). Similar probabilities apply in eastern Queensland and both these areas are where minimum temperature forecasts show the most skill for the current season.

In contrast, the chances of above average minimum temperatures are only 20 to 30% in the W.A./N.T. border region, although there is little useful skill in this region for this period.

Background Information:

• These outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire outlook period. Information about individual days or weeks, which may be unusually hot or cold, is not given.
• This outlook uses data from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Indian Ocean is warmer than normal close to Australia.
• This outlook represents a summary, more detail is available from the contact people or web site listed below.
• Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available from the National Climate Centre.

For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:

Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4603
John Chataway on (03) 9669 4859
Scott Power on (03) 9669 4085

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Temperature Outlooks

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Rainfall Outlooks

Maximum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.

Minimum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.